The Cincinnati Reds are set to face the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park this Friday evening at 6:45 PM ET, in what promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams with different stakes this season. The Reds, holding a season record of 47-50, are currently in 4th place in the NL Central, trailing the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers by eight games. The Nationals, on the other hand, with a season record of 44-53, find themselves 4th in the NL East, 18.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the Reds will be Frankie Montas, who comes into the game with a 4-7 record and a 4.38 ERA over 17 starts. Montas' recent form has been shaky, as evidenced by his last outing against the Colorado Rockies where he gave up five earned runs in seven innings. For the Nationals, it will be Patrick Corbin taking the hill. Corbin holds a 4-9 record with a 5.57 ERA over 19 starts this season. Corbin's vulnerability to the long ball has been a concern, having surrendered at least one home run in each of his last four outings. However, he has shown flashes of brilliance, notably pitching seven scoreless innings on June 24th.
Team Form and Betting Odds
Despite being the underdog with odds at +105 and a projected 62% chance of victory, the Nationals have been unpredictable, especially at home with a 2-3 record over their last five games. Their overall record as underdogs stands at 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 against the run line. Conversely, the Reds, favorites for this encounter, have displayed solid form on the road, boasting a 4-1 record over their last five away games. The Reds hold a 5-5 record when playing as favorites.
The Nationals have struggled in recent games, losing to the Brewers 9-3 in their previous outing where Jake Irvin gave up six earned runs in four innings. This loss contributes to their broader struggle, having registered a 3-7 record over their last ten games. Despite this, they managed to clinch a series win against the Brewers recently, taking two of the three games.
Offensive Dynamics
Offensively, the Reds seem better positioned, averaging 4.5 runs per game, which ranks them 14th in the league. Their batting average stands at .231, putting them 17th in on-base percentage but 25th in strikeouts, indicating a tendency to go down swinging. Spencer Steer has been a standout performer, driving in 60 runs and hitting 15 homers, placing him among the top ten in RBIs in the MLB. However, the Reds will be missing key players like Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain, which could impact their offensive output.
The Nationals, averaging 4.1 runs per game, rank 23rd in the league. At home, their run production slightly improves to 4.2 runs per game. With a batting average of .239 and ranking 13th in on-base percentage, they have shown they can get on base, but consistency remains an issue. CJ Abrams, who leads the team with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, has been struggling recently, going 3/21 in his last five games. The absence of players like Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and Abrams could further hinder their performance.
Game Expectations
The over/under for the game is set at nine runs. The Reds have struggled under this condition, holding a 2-16-3 record when the over/under is set at nine runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals fare slightly better with a 7-7-2 record under similar circumstances. This statistic suggests that bettors might see a lower-scoring game, despite both teams having potential power hitters in their lineups.
Both teams will be aiming to recover from recent losses. The Reds are coming off a 3-2 defeat against the Marlins, where Nick Lodolo gave up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings, and Elly De La Cruz provided an early spark with a home run in the first inning. The Nationals will hope to improve from their 9-3 loss to the Brewers, focusing on strong starting pitching and better bullpen support to counter the Reds' solid road form.
The game promises to be a tightly contested affair, with both teams having different incentives to push for a win. While the Reds are still eyeing a climb up the standings, the Nationals will look to play the role of spoilers and gather momentum for the remainder of the season. The pitching duel between Montas and Corbin, along with the offensive outputs of Steer and Abrams, will likely be the key determinants in this matchup.