This afternoon, the Diamondbacks will take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. The Diamondbacks enter the matchup as slight favorites with a money line of -106, and both teams are poised to deliver an exciting contest for the fans.
Pitching Duel: Steele vs. Nelson
Justin Steele will be on the mound for the Cubs, marking his 15th start of the season. Steele has shown promising signs, holding a 2-3 record with a 2.71 ERA, and delivering eight quality starts to his name. In his latest performance, Steele pitched seven scoreless innings, further highlighting his capability to dominate when he's on form. His ERA stands at 3.16 at home and 2.96 on the road, suggesting a slight advantage when pitching away from Wrigley Field.
On the other side, Ryne Nelson will start for the Diamondbacks. Nelson's season has been a bit more turbulent, holding a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. He also carries a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296. Despite these numbers, Nelson has shown resilience, making six consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs. With both pitchers having their strengths and vulnerabilities, this matchup will be one to watch closely.
Team Dynamics and Recent Form
The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 49-48 overall record, positioning them second in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers. Their recent road form has been noteworthy, securing a 4-1 record and matching run line in their last five away games. Averaging five runs per game, Arizona boasts the second-best mark in MLB. Leading the charge for the bats are Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, with 22 and 19 home runs respectively.
However, the Diamondbacks recently faced a tough loss against the Blue Jays, squandering a seven-run lead to lose 8-7. Despite this setback, they've managed to pull off two straight road victories, enhancing their road game credibility. With an overall run line record mirroring their win-loss tally at 49-48 and an over/under record at 52-42, the Diamondbacks often engage in high-scoring affairs, averaging 9.8 runs per game.
As for the Cubs, boasting a 47-51 record, they find themselves fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. Their recent form has been compelling, going 7-3 in their last ten games and holding a strong 4-1 record in their last five home games. Even with a divisional record of 12-21, the Cubs have shown potential, particularly as home underdogs, going 9-5 in such instances this year.
Recently, Jameson Taillon contributed significantly in an 8-3 victory over the Cardinals, pitching 5 2/3 innings and allowing three earned runs. The Cubs' batting average stands at .235, with players like Nico Hoerner, who has hit .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, who has three homers in his last eight games, stepping up to the plate.
Betting and Projections
Today's game has an over/under line set at 7.5 runs, which should be intriguing for bettors considering both teams are on a three-game over streak. Remarkably, 84.5% of Diamondbacks games surpass the 7.5 run line, alongside a 67.3% rate for the Cubs. When the over/under is set at 7.5, Arizona holds a 6-4 record compared to the Cubs' 12-10 record.
Justin Steele is projected to strike out six batters, while Ryne Nelson is anticipated to notch up four strikeouts. Moreover, Steele is expected to concede fewer runs than Nelson, pointing to a possible pitching advantage for the Cubs.
Final Thoughts
With both teams showing strong recent performances and Steele and Nelson pitching consistently, the game sets the stage for a tightly contested battle. The prediction leans towards a narrow 5-4 victory for the Diamondbacks, but given the dynamics at play, it could easily swing in either direction. As the clock ticks towards the first pitch, fans at Wrigley Field and across the nation will be eagerly watching to see which team comes out on top.